A (mathematical) way to think about Coronavirus: Covid19
There is a lot of chatter going on around coronavirus and its comparison to flu and whether all this panic is justified or moronic!
Well, my goal in this short post is to share a different perspective so we all can have more insights into what it is that we are dealing with and how they should personally approach it.
Let’s say there are two diseases: Disease X and Disease Y
Disease X infects 50 Million people in the world each year (and has been around for over a century)
Disease X kills 300,000 people in the world
0.6% dead (best case scenario)
Disease Y (which is like Disease X) has infected 121,747 people in the world
Disease Y has killed 4389 people
If Disease Y is not stopped, it has a similar or faster rate of spread compared to Disease X. Disease Y can also become endemic just like Disease X (and therefore returning every year).
The point is NOT “total deaths” BUT “total potential death”, if not stopped. The point is about stopping the spread.
Please wash your hand. Don’t handshake. Avoid unnecessary travel. Work from home, if not 100% well. Practice common sense. Stay safe and let’s keep everyone safe around us.
If You Live in the US
Disease X infects 10-50 Million people in the US each year (and has been around for over a century)
Disease X kills 56,000 people in the US each year
0.5% dead (best case scenario)
Disease Y (which is like Disease X) has infected 1016 people in the US
Disease Y has killed 31 people
Again, the point here is NOT “total deaths” BUT “total potential death” if not stopped. The point is about stopping the spread.